The French real estate market went through a rarely observed low phase in 2024. This contraction, which began in 2022, affected the entire territory, but the mechanisms for exiting the crisis deserve more attention than just the simple observation of a decline.
End of Pinel and rental investment: what changes concretely for landlords
The Pinel scheme ended on December 31, 2024, with no direct replacement for new housing. For investors who were counting on this tax reduction, the situation changed overnight.
In concrete terms, a rental purchase in new housing no longer benefits from any comparable tax advantage. Banks are already noticing a decline in new rental investment applications. Profiles that were leaning towards Pinel are now turning to older properties needing renovation, or to different setups like the LMNP status (non-professional furnished rental), which remains accessible.
This disappearance weighs even more heavily as energy renovation constraints increase. Owners of poorly rated properties on the DPE who have not started renovations risk finding themselves with an unsellable property. The gradual timeline of the Climate and Resilience law provides for increasing restrictions on energy-inefficient homes in the coming years.
To keep up with these regulatory developments and their consequences on purchase or rental projects, the news on Services Immo allows you to stay informed over the months.
Real estate prices in 2024: national stabilization, local fractures
After an average decline of 4% in 2023, prices slowed their drop in 2024. The lower threshold seems to have been reached for the national average.
Territorial disparities remain strong. Some departments have experienced contractions much more pronounced than the average, while well-connected medium-sized cities have fared better.
- Large metropolitan areas (Paris, Lyon, Bordeaux) saw their prices drop but remain at high levels compared to local purchasing power.
- Attractive medium-sized cities (Angers, Reims, Orléans) recorded more moderate corrections, with renewed interest from buyers.
- Isolated rural areas continue to decline, lacking nearby services and jobs.
The market is no longer read on a national scale but on the scale of living areas. A buyer who only considers the French average misses very different realities from one department to another.
Mortgage rates: the easing that changed the second half
The first half of 2024 continued the trend of 2023, with sales volumes at their lowest. The turning point occurred thanks to successive cuts in the key rates decided by the European Central Bank.
Mortgage rates have fallen enough to unlock previously stalled applications. Households that could not secure financing six months earlier were able to finalize their purchase. This easing helped stabilize volumes in the second half, even though the overall level remains low.
Why did this drop in rates not trigger an immediate rebound in transactions? Because household confidence remained weakened by the economic and political context. Unemployment, budgetary restrictions, and political uncertainty in France weighed on purchasing decisions, even when financing became accessible again.
New real estate in difficulty: a supply crisis is settling in
The new market is experiencing a crisis much deeper than the old one. Construction starts have plummeted, developers are struggling to launch new programs, and the end of Pinel has removed a marketing engine.
The new market suffers from a collapse in demand and rising construction costs. New prices have not decreased as much as those of older properties, creating an increasing gap between the two segments. A rational buyer compares: why pay more per square meter for new when the old offers significant discounts?
This situation has direct consequences on the housing shortage. Fewer new constructions mean less available supply in the coming years, while demand for housing remains strong in tight areas.
- The number of building permits issued remains significantly lower than pre-crisis levels.
- The PTZ (zero-interest loan) has been refocused on certain areas, limiting its leverage effect.
- Local authorities are struggling to attract developers to projects that have become less profitable.
The expected rebound in 2025: first concrete signals
Available data shows that 2025 marks a true turning point. Transactions in the old market are rebounding by nearly 19%, with overall real estate activity up by 8%. Prices are slightly rising again after two years of decline.
This turnaround does not mean a return to 2021 levels. It rather reflects a normalization after three years of contraction. Buyers who have waited for price and rate drops are beginning to position themselves.
This budgetary reality places the issue of housing purchasing power at the center of political concerns for the coming years. Access to housing remains the structuring issue of the market, far beyond price cycles.
